The downward pressure on Bitcoin during US trading hours is intensifying as coin valuations on Coinbase slide to a $64 discount compared to Binance, the globe’s premier cryptocurrency platform.
Based on a CryptoSlate review of Binance’s BTC/USDT market data, Bitcoin has given up a compounded 3.24% throughout American stock-exchange hours starting September 21, whereas quotes outside of those trading windows gained 6.07%.
Within this timeframe, the Coinbase Premium Gap tracked by CryptoQuant dropped down to -$64, indicating diminished buyer interest or heavier liquidation on the US-centric trading platform.
This trend aligns with Glassnode’s assessment that the American trading window has turned into a focal point for downward pressure. Nevertheless, the losses concentrated heavily across a couple of sessions, while exchange-traded fund movements on those precise days traveled in opposite directions, complicating theories of ongoing institutional sell-offs.
Two sessions drove most of the decline
Out of 13 Wall Street cash sessions spanning from September 21 through October 7, Bitcoin experienced drops in eight of them. According to the CryptoSlate evaluation of Binance figures, the steepest pullbacks occurred on September 30 and October 2, with prices falling 1.86% and 2.65% respectively during the New York hours of 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m.
If you take away those two specific dates, the remaining 11 sessions yield a compounded gain of 1.28%.
This dynamic matters because the headline loss of 3.24% could otherwise imply a more consistent decay than what the raw figures demonstrate. The US window saw frequent weakness, but a large portion of the overall damage stemmed from two abrupt drops instead of a steady routine of selling.
The numbers also demonstrate that shifting the trading window alters the outcome.
Initiating the US session at 9 a.m. instead of 9:30 a.m. yields a compounded drop of 4.94% stretching to 4 p.m. over that identical duration. Beginning at 10 a.m. yields a 5.41% drop.
When September 30 and October 2 are filtered out, those alternate timeframes still display losses of 0.16% and 1.68% respectively. That leaves the positive 1.28% remnant reliant strictly on the precise 9:30 a.m. opening limit.
Price metrics from Coinbase indicate a comparable overarching trend. Bitcoin dropped around 4.85% between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m., and fell 5.36% from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. during the same span.
This consistency across both Binance and Coinbase reinforces the timing indicator while keeping the identities of the market participants unclear.
Because Binance evaluates Bitcoin against USDT while Coinbase measures it against fiat dollars, neither marketplace exposes whether the sellers consist of American institutions, retail traders, market makers, or international investors operating throughout standard US business hours.
Glassnode reported this week that the net gains for Bitcoin following September 21 materialized predominantly outside of the American session, turning the tables on a previous phase where US trading hours fueled the upward movement more significantly.
ETF flows fail to identify the seller
Fund activity presents the most direct challenge to any straightforward hypothesis of institutional selling.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $148.7 million in net exits on September 30, matching up with the initial major US-session slide. However, two days later, these investment vehicles pulled in $189.9 million even as Bitcoin dropped by 2.65% throughout Wall Street operating hours.
Such a divergence highlights that ETF participants alone cannot account for the session weakness.
Capital departures turned more prominent by October 7, when these funds logged $484.9 million in net redemptions. This highlights that demand from the funds has occasionally softened, though daily aggregates still fall short of revealing when the underlying Bitcoin was unloaded or which investors pushed valuations downward.
The operational mechanics of redemptions introduce another layer of complexity. Ever since regulators permitted in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto ETFs back in 2025, withdrawals can entail moving Bitcoin directly rather than triggering an immediate cash liquidation.
Consequently, the Coinbase discount remains a helpful supporting indicator rather than definitive proof of institutional selling. A persistent negative premium implies softer pricing on a platform closely tied to US participants, but it cannot pinpoint the ultimate beneficial owners behind individual transactions.
The upcoming few sessions will test whether this behavior is becoming entrenched.
Should Bitcoin keep giving up territory during Wall Street hours while the Coinbase discount stays heavily negative and ETF withdrawals grow, arguments supporting a continuous decay in US interest would gain strength.
Conversely, a rebound in American-session returns devoid of a corresponding surge in ETF interest would point toward other forces, potentially involving market makers, derivatives positioning, or different actors supplying Bitcoin throughout the US business day.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Bitcoin dropping during US trading hours?
Data shows Bitcoin has lost a compounded 3.24% during US stock-market hours since September 21, while prices outside that window rose 6.07%. However, most of this decline was concentrated in just two specific sessions (September 30 and October 2).
What is the Coinbase Premium Gap?
The Coinbase Premium Gap fell to -$64, indicating weaker demand or heavier selling pressure on Coinbase, an exchange heavily focused on US-based participants compared to global platforms like Binance.
Do ETF flows explain the institutional selling?
Not entirely. While US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw heavy outflows on some dates, they also pulled in $189.9 million on October 2 despite a 2.65% drop during Wall Street hours, showing a divergence that complicates simple explanations.
Can we identify who is selling Bitcoin during US hours?
No. Neither Binance nor Coinbase reveals whether the sellers are US institutions, retail traders, market makers, or global investors active during American business hours.
