Anticipation surrounding Anthropic’s potential $2 trillion initial public offering has already generated nearly $80 million in crypto derivatives wagering ahead of its market debut.
Futures open interest tied to the developer of Claude has surged to approximately $79.27 million—hovering near a record $80 million—as market participants position themselves for what could rank among the largest IPOs ever attempted. This trading activity is occurring even though Anthropic has not yet revealed an offering price, a final valuation, or the exact quantity of shares it plans to issue.
Figures from CoinGlass indicate that the ANTHROPIC pre-stock contract is changing hands at roughly $2,147, with over $20 million in futures volume recorded over a 24-hour period. Binance has emerged as the leading platform for this activity, handling about 40% of the volume.
This contract does not equate to actual Anthropic equity. CoinGlass data indicates there is no circulating supply or spot trading available for the asset, and Anthropic remains a private enterprise. Instead, the valuation reflects derivatives markets attempting to price exposure to a company whose shares cannot yet be bought by the public.
This distinction is growing more significant as digital asset exchanges establish markets for shares of some of Silicon Valley’s most valuable private entities, initiating price discovery well before traditional investors can purchase the underlying equity.
In June, Anthropic submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). At that time, the business noted it had not yet finalized its share count or pricing.
Investors have deliberated a valuation reaching as high as $2 trillion, which would position the offering as one of the largest in history. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Anthropic now intends to move forward with the IPO in November, pushing back the October timeline previously anticipated by investors.
Private AI becomes a crypto derivatives trade
Anthropic forms part of a wider trend wherein cryptocurrency markets construct tradable instruments based on companies that remain out of reach for typical public-market participants.
Data from Binance Research shows that combined open interest for Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO perpetual contracts exceeded $160 million this month, marking a steep rise from roughly $1 million in April and a 179% increase compared to the prior month. During the first 14 days of September, these two entities represented nearly 95% of total pre-IPO perpetual volume.
Such markets bear little resemblance to tokenized stocks backed by legitimate securities.
Pre-IPO perpetual contracts function as cash-settled derivatives that reference an expected valuation or share price of a future public corporation. Binance Research notes that these contracts require no underlying shares to back them, meaning participants are simply taking long or short positions on the future worth of the enterprise.
This framework enables the crypto space to price corporate updates almost instantaneously.
For instance, Binance Research pointed out that instruments tied to OpenAI climbed following the launch of its Astra model earlier this month, and subsequently declined after Chief Executive Sam Altman hinted at a potential delay for the company’s IPO.
Anthropic now presents a fresh test for this ecosystem.
Reuters reported earlier this month that certain investors weighed a $2 trillion valuation for the company, while the updated schedule shifts the target listing to November. Additionally, Anthropic contemplates unveiling a new artificial intelligence model prior to the public offering as competition with OpenAI intensifies.
While rising futures open interest indicates that the notional value of active positions is expanding, it does not inherently mean traders hold a uniformly bullish outlook. Because every futures contract requires both a buyer and a seller, increasing open interest primarily points to higher engagement and greater leverage.
Nevertheless, the sheer size of this market means Anthropic is establishing a continuously updated crypto reference price before Wall Street even receives an official IPO price.
Allaire tells Anthropic to embrace public scrutiny
This speculative environment expands as Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire calls on Anthropic to finalize its transition into the public equities arena.
“Take the leap, Anthropic,” Allaire urged, asserting that worries regarding volatile markets, valuation concerns, and AI safety support the need to subject the business to elevated levels of transparency rather than avoiding them.
Allaire referenced Circle’s own journey after bringing the USDC stablecoin issuer public in June 2025. Circle priced its IPO at $31 per share, with total proceeds reaching approximately $1.2 billion, a figure that factored in shares sold by existing stakeholders and the full execution of the underwriters’ overallotment option.
He noted that going public introduced rigorous financial auditing, quarterly reporting requirements, independent board governance, and Sarbanes-Oxley controls, all of which simplified the evaluation process for banks, regulatory bodies, and enterprise clients.
According to Allaire, frontier AI developers are nearing an identical crossroads as their technology embeds itself deeper into corporate operations and economic foundations.
He explained that model capabilities, safety protocols, computing commitments, revenue concentration, and corporate governance are increasingly matters of public importance, even though much of that data stays locked inside private firms.
An initial public offering would compel Anthropic to reveal far more regarding its financials, operational dependencies, and underlying vulnerabilities, while holding executive leadership accountable to investors, regulatory authorities, and consistent disclosure schedules.
Furthermore, Allaire emphasized that an IPO cannot serve as a replacement for proper AI regulation. He drew a comparison to stablecoins, suggesting that public-market discipline and transparent rules evolved in tandem.
Consequently, Anthropic faces its path toward the public markets from two very different angles.
Traditional finance participants await the formal prospectus and the financial metrics necessary to evaluate if a valuation near $2 trillion is realistic. Meanwhile, crypto speculators have already committed nearly $80 million in active futures positions to a marketplace attempting to answer that very question in real time.
This discrepancy is expected to diminish once Anthropic publishes its registration paperwork. At that juncture, traders will be able to cross-reference the assumptions built into pre-IPO derivatives with the concrete revenue, cost structure, risks, and share allocations that Anthropic officially discloses to future shareholders.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the total open interest in Anthropic-linked crypto futures?
Open interest in futures tied to Anthropic has reached approximately $79.27 million, which is near a record high of $80 million.
Are pre-IPO crypto contracts actual shares of Anthropic stock?
No. These instruments are cash-settled derivatives that reflect market speculation on the anticipated valuation or share price of the company, and they do not represent actual equity or circulating spot shares.
When is Anthropic expected to hold its IPO?
Reports indicate that Anthropic is planning to stage its IPO in November, moving back from an earlier October timeline anticipated by investors.
What valuation has been discussed for Anthropic’s public offering?
Investors have discussed a potential valuation of up to $2 trillion, which would make the offering one of the largest in history.
